Thursday, October 25, 2007

Huckabee's FRC Values Voter Summit speech

One of my coworkers, Warren Smith, went to the FRC Values Voter Summit in Washington, DC, and he came back a Mike Huckabee fanatic. I was a little skeptical--after watching his performance in the Michigan debate, I'd become generally unimpressed with Mr. Huckabee.

However, you really must see the speech he delivered at the Values Voter Summit.

Electability may be a concern, but Huckabee is gaining significant ground in the polls. Warren writes:

There is very little chance the Republicans will have a candidate by March, despite the fact that some activists are saying we should put our differences aside and start running against Hillary. Of course, in a few months, after the first round of primaries, there will be some winners and losers. At least one of the front runners will have to drop out of the race. Right now, my money is on McCain to make an early exit. I also predict that Duncan Hunter will drop out. He's simply not getting traction because the issues he hoped would differentiate him are being carried ably by others. Ron Paul is in for the duration. He's raising enough money to stay in, and he seems to be enjoying the notoriety. And though he can't win, he will carry enough supporters late into the process - perhaps all the way to the convention - to play spoiler or convention broker.

Huckabee could be a major beneficiary of all of this, especially of any early re-alignments. As Huckabee starts to appear more electable, he will pick up more of the undecided voters, which right now stand at about 15 to 20 percent of the likely primary voters. They won't all break for Huckabee, of course, but he'll likely get more than his fair share. Also, many of those who have decided will change their minds. A former Southern Baptist leader in South Carolina who had supported Romney has already withdrawn his endorsement. Indeed, Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council estimates that about 25 percent of evangelicals are supporting Giuliani, but he also said that support is "squishy." If just a few of those evangelicals move away from Giuliani, he's no longer the front runner. If they moved en masse to Huckabee, then Huckabee is suddenly a "top-tier" candidate.

I hope he's right.

Edit: Here's Warren's article in full.

1 comment:

Travis said...

Great post. I appreciate the info. These guys have decided for Huckabee as well. If you read their blogpost, follow the comments - especially by commenter "DJP". He provides some useful links, but he is not in favor of Huckabee. I am still undecided, but Huckabee is one of the few GOP candidates with whom I am comfortable. Rudy is definitely a "No!" I'm not real fond of McCain either. Romney's Mormonism is not a big problem for me, but his vacillation is. (Although I'd rather not have a Mormon President if it can be avoided!)Your beloved Fred has not convinced me, but he hasn't shoved me away.