Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Reality Check

RealClearPolitics has proven to be fairly accurate in measuring political consensus. Currently, the RCP national poll average has John McCain leading by 9.9%. Intrade currently gives McCain a 51.4% chance of winning the nomination.

Fred Thompson is currently at 9.2% in the RCP average, and Intrade gives him a 0.4% chance at winning the nomination. As much as I'd like to vote for this fellow, his campaign appears to be on its last legs. [Edit: Thompson has now withdrawn from the race.]

Mike Huckabee, though still polling at 18.8% in the RCP average, also looks to be finished. His chances in Florida are poor, and it seems unlikely that he can do well enough on Super Tuesday to have a real shot at the nomination. He's at 3.5% on Intrade.

I would be interested in hearing more thoughts on McCain.


Mark said...

McCain is the "nuclear option" for me. I would have to hold my nose and close my eyes to vote for him--only if there were no other choice available. He is better than Obama or Hillary. He is just barely the lesser of two evils.

Now that Fred is officially out, I am having a difficult time with where I am going to cast my primary vote.

todd said...

I would like to think that McCain is not an evitable choice. He is one of the few candidates I believe Hillary could beat (Romney being the other possibility). It seems to me that Huckabee could secure much more of the southern vote now that Thompson has dropped out. I also reason that Giuliani and Romney are not likely to be favored in the south. Huckabee is a more tolerable choice for me in place of McCain although he has some convincing to do up against Romney and perhaps even Giuliani for me- Romney more for my proximity to his views and Giuliani more for his aptitude at beating Hillary.
I’m sad to see Thompson depart. I am still among the largely unconvinced and would have like to seen him really step out and sell his campaign. Now I await Huckabee and Romney to do the same (with Giuliani as the possible emergency backup). McCain must not win!

Anonymous said...

Slightly off-topic, you guys might enjoy this interesting article that I found thanks to Ken Ham's blog:



Philip said...

This will be a bit more clear after Feb. 5.